Proof of tough times in county freeway use

Driving miles off by millions in '08

By Steve Schmidt, staff writer, and Danielle Cervantes, staff data specialist

2:00 a.m. January 19, 2009

The one-two punch of record-high gas prices and a collapsing economy caused motorists to cut back on San Diego County freeway travel by millions of miles last year.

An analysis of state traffic data by The San Diego Union-Tribune shows the number of vehicle miles traveled in the county slid 4 percent compared with 2007.

Transportation experts and economists say traffic levels typically drop during economic downturns, but usually not to that degree.

“We're seeing a huge contraction,” said Charles Langley, a fuel-price analyst with the Utility Consumers' Action Network, or UCAN.

While fewer miles driven can mean less congestion and smog, Langley said, the economics behind the drop are worrisome.

“This is just very disturbing to see,” he said.

When gas prices hit a record of $4.56 per gallon in June, the number of miles traveled on local freeways declined 5.9 percent from June 2007.

In November, when the region had 15,000 fewer jobs than in November 2007, the number of miles traveled slipped 7 percent, representing the biggest monthly drop.

“I expect we won't see a return in the growth in traffic until the economy turns around,” said Marney Cox, an economist with the San Diego Association of Governments, the regional planning agency.

The figures reflect nationwide trends.

The Federal Highway Administration last month reported that Americans drove about 100 billion fewer miles between Nov. 1, 2007, and Oct. 31, 2008, than in the same period a year earlier, the largest sustained decline in driving in U.S. history.

Motorists on county freeways drove 11.4 billion miles in 2008, versus 11.8 billion the year before, according to sensor data collected by state officials.

Many drivers say they are traveling less as part of their overall belt-tightening.

“I cut back my driving last year, especially on weekends,” said Donald Gross of City Heights. Given the troubled economy, he added, “I'm trying to trim back whatever expenses I can.”

Dee Welch of the College Area said she began to change her driving habits last spring as gas prices shot up. Rather than jump into her Toyota Camry whenever she felt like it, Welch started combining her errands into a single trip.

Welch said the habit stuck, even as gas prices began to tumble in the fall.

“I pretty much don't use the car unless I have a clear game plan,” she said.

From March to September, the number of miles driven on local freeways dipped each month by 3 percent to 6 percent compared with the previous year.

During that period, the average cost of a gallon of gas ranged from $3.59 to $4.56, according to UCAN.

Ridership on public transit ballooned.

The Metropolitan Transit System posted sharp increases in bus ridership during several months last year, including a 15.5 percent jump in October, compared with October 2007.

Complete 2008 figures for trolley ridership were unavailable last week, but MTS believes they also will show sizable increases.

UCAN's Langley said the spring run-up in gas prices took a huge economic toll on many San Diegans, including himself.

Langley said he started using a credit card instead of cash for the first time to cover his growing gasoline cost.

He's still trying to pay off the bill.

“I want to pay it off and cut up (the card) into little pieces because I don't want to get caught in that debt trap again,” Langley said.

In many households, bigger issues are brewing than gas debts. Some people find themselves out of work, while others are skittish about spending money in a recession.

Cox said last year's 4 percent drop in vehicle-miles traveled was probably the biggest decline in the county since the recession in the early 1980s.

The figures were calculated using freeway sensor data collected by Caltrans and Berkeley Transportation Systems Inc., a private firm that manages traffic data for the state.

A Union-Tribune analysis published last fall found a 6.6 percent decline in the number of cars passing through eight major congestion points in the region in September compared with the same period in 2007.

That study focused on vehicle-volume data, not vehicle-miles traveled.

Economists say they believe the housing slowdown contributed to last year's downturn with fewer construction workers reporting to once-thriving sites across the region.

Cox and others also pointed to the weak holiday shopping season, noting that many retailers cut back on seasonal hires.

The county unemployment rate in November was 6.9 percent, compared with 4.9 percent a year earlier. Some economists predict the local unemployment rate is likely to approach or top 8 percent this year.

Gross, of City Heights, said he is confident his job as a medical technician is safe. But he knows many people who are nervous about their jobs.

“People are kind of hunkering down,” he said, in part, he believes, by driving less.

Steve Schmidt: (619) 293-1380; steve.schmidt@uniontrib.com