Why gas prices should be dropping like a box of rocks, but aren't

UCAN News

On a per gallon basis, oil prices have dropped by 20¢ since December 21, yet gas prices have only dropped about a penny during the same time period. Meanwhile the national inventory of motor fuel has jumped by millions of barrels (see Bloomberg News).

If San Diego had competitive fuel markets, our prices would be dropping like a box of rocks right now, yet our gas prices are glued into place. Why?

Blame it on what economists call "sticky" prices.

A "sticky price" is a price that does not respond to market conditions. And when it comes to being sticky, our gas prices have the staying power of superglue. That's why UCAN has repeatedly asserted that there is no free market for gasoline in California. Prices are set not by the laws of supply and demand, but by the pricing managers at California's seven largest oil companies. The "Seven Sisters."*

The oil industry has routinely explained away high gas prices as a result of the high cost of oil. When the price of oil surges on the futures market, they immediately start charging you for the future price of oil at their retail gas pumps. Yet when the price of oil plummets, our gasoline prices barely budge, suggesting that oil companies are taking in huge profits at the refinery level.

Why are prices so high? Because in California, the lack of competition means oil companies can flaunt the law of supply and demand with impunity. Unlike genuine free markets, the major oil companies do not aggressively compete. If they did, our gas prices would now average $2.47 a gallon or less. Of course, things could be worse: we could live in Los Angeles, where according to the DOE, the price of gasoline has increased 7¢ between December 21 and January 7.

Sticky prices are a symptom of a malfunctioning free market (one of many), and there is a solution to the lack of competition. UCAN has vigorously urged the governor and lawmakers to impose reforms that prevent opportunistic price gouging, including injecting competition into the market, and the employment of refinery inspectors to make certain that gasoline refineries are not being deliberately shut down.

* The seven sisters are: Arco/British Petrolem, Chevron, Shell, Conoco/Phillips, Valero, Tesoro, and Exxon Mobil. Together, they control 91% of the States' refining capacity as follows: Chevron = 26.09%, Arco/BP = 13.5%, Shell = 13.14%, Valero = 11.7%, Conoco/Phillips = 10.7%, Exxon/Mobil = 7.73%. The remaining 8.6% is supplied by Big West, Paramount, Kern Oil, and San Joaquin. SOURCE: California Energy Commission: http://www.energy.ca.gov/oil/refineries.html

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.

Don't think the banks are above these tactics...

In addressing part of your statement below:
"So what's wrong with taking a profit?

Nothing. But, what's happening here in the oil industry is the equivalent of a bank charging an extra 2% for every 1% increase in the prime rate. Banks don't operate that way because if they did they would face price-cutting from competitors. "

Mr. Langley, I generally agree with what you have to say, but on this note, I must provide some differently focussed insight. Banks have and still do practice "gouge-onomy". When the prime rates went down, the credit card interest rates stayed constant or went up. At the same time this nation had their lowest rates in decades, credit card interest was at an all time high. Likewise, savings account interest rates plummetted in a non-linear fashion when the prime rate went down. For every percentage point in prime rate decrease, savings rates went down 1.5 to 175 points. Bank profits also went up sufficiently for the larger banks to allow them to outright buy smaller banks. Fees for services also hit record highs in this same time frame.

I'm not against business. I have three of my own - all reasonably profitable. I also reinvest a portion my profits into my community as a sound business practice. I am against the Profit-at-all-costs mentality that seems to pervade many businesses today. They think that competition is defined as doing 99% of what the "other guys" do for the same price. Tragically, it was only 20 years ago that competition was defined as giving 110% better service, product, and value for the SAME price.

For banks, that translates to:
1. Where have all the services gone? (Free checks, free appliances with new accounts, great interest rates, etc.)
2. Where has the personnal attention been diverted? ("Welcome, Mr Smith" is now "What's your account number? and ")
3. Where has the loyalty to the customer disappeared to?

For gas companies, that translates to:
1. No attendant at each island to pump your gas, wash you windshield, check your oil, etc.
2. Higher prices (Even in the 70's during rationing, gas was half what it is today.)
3. Nastier, lower quality fuel. (Remember when hi-test was 97 Octane?)

Again, thank you for your more correct insights.

Reply to "Don't Think banks ..."

Charles Langley's picture

I stand corrected. I guess the slogan "when banks compete, you win" probably ought to be revised to "If banks would only compete, you'd win!"

Charles Langley
Gasoline Analyst & Publisher, UCAN Watchdog

Pusillanimously obsequious and complacent

Subject suffices to set the standard for the anonymous use of vernacular in this thread. Thanks UCAN for clarifying; for the sycophant of higher education; your position, your errors, your omissions, and those of the industry as they attempt to lead us by the nose down the primrose path towards the cliff!

pulsillaninimously obsequious and complacent

Jane Bond Here:
Good god! Why don't you speak English? What you're writing is gobblydegook and nonsense. Alice did better when she was down the hole at the tea party. I know American are notoriously bad at speaking their mother tongue; but you sir or madam are just an inane ninny. If you want to be insulting, just come right out and insult. Don't beat around the bush because no one understands your nonsense.
Jane Bond

Major Oil Company Thinking on Pricing

I had the pleasure of working directly for one of the major oil companies for nearly three years. It was as a contractor, at their credit card center, handling all those little slips you see. Everything was fine, until they decided to out-source the entire operation. Such is life.

Not part of the actual employee base there was a definite line about what could, or should, be said about the business. But during that time, and with the studies done to evaluate the out-sourcing, there was a certain amount of understanding as to how the business was run.

The Oil Companies are very competitive, but it's in the aggregate, not the individual markets. Yes, they charge all they can, but only as it provides the "share of the market" expected for the area. The true cost of getting gas to the station had little to due with the underlying price.

We all know individual station owners, or managers, get the short end of the pie when it's divided up, and sometimes they have to bite the bullet to stay competitive in their local market. They have to do this to keep the fuel flowing. If they're not getting their share of the gas sold they may feel penalty's, whether that be in pricing or scheduling of new deliveries.

San Diego has always been a target market, not just for it's gasoline. All products! With the semi-isolated proximity to the rest of the population, and the mix of personal backgrounds of the people living here, there is a microcosm of the nation. This makes for an ideal location to test market products and delivery systems. Same to with gasoline. If the powers to be believe they can raise prices (what they always want to do) they'll likely start in this area and see the reception it receives. And then they'll only reduce the price when market share falls and they're forced.

Addendum to Oil Company Thinking - Let the gouging begin!

Charles Langley's picture

Hailstorm's observations are correct.

Most gasoline retailers are lucky to make a dime a gallon on their gasoline, yet by some estimates, the refineries have been getting margins in the last year as high as 60¢ a gallon on their gasoline. .

Right now, several major motor fuel refineries are going offline and this is creating shortages of fuel, thus driving up the price, but do not mistake what's happening with the usual "supply and demand" economics we grew up with. These shortages are exploited, and possibly even manufactured in the same manner that the rolling electrical blackouts we experienced a few years ago were manufactured by Enron and seven other Texas energy companies.

The bottom line for the refineries is, that if they play their cards right, they can exploit their own non-competitive wholesale marketplace for maximum profit.

Here's what's happening:

The refineries are shutting down because they are required to do so by law: In order to comply with federal and state clean air standards, these huge operations must stop refining fuel, reconfigure their fuel blends, conduct safety maintenance, and then start up again. It is a very costly process, and in order to comply with clean air standards, they must also refine the gasoline to a different RVP or Reid Vapor Pressure.

The spring RVP standards make it so that an oil company gets about 6% less gasoline from a barrel of oil, which creates another "shortage" of gasoline. These shortages are predictable. They are easily planned for. They are also very hard on retailers, but can be tremendously profitable to the oil companies.

The bottom line is this: California refineries have learned that when there is a shortage of gasoline, the profits per gallon increase. These profits can be so extreme that in many cases, it is actually more profitable to sell less fuel for more money. UCAN calls this perverse incentive a "Gouge-onomy." That's why in the last year, refinery profits per gallon have nearly doubled, while retail profits have decreased.

So what's wrong with taking a profit?

Nothing. But, what's happening here in the oil industry is the equivalent of a bank charging an extra 2% for every 1% increase in the prime rate. Banks don't operate that way because if they did they would face price-cutting from competitors. In California, however, there is minimal competition at the refinery level. And when you don't competition, you get price-gouging, shortages, and in the end, gasoline stations that are being bankrupted by their own suppliers.

Charles Langley
Gasoline Analyst & Publisher, UCAN Watchdog

Why Gas Prices Should Be Dropping Like a box of rocks but aren't

Jane Bond Here:
As long as the 7 sisters oil companies keep making their obscene profits (and I am not against profit taking, it is what makes capitalism work), oil prices
will continue to rise and have no connection to market forces. That's not capitalism, folks, that's monopoly. You can't blame the oil company executives, in a way; no one from the federal government (read the executive government and congress) has told them they actually have to compete, especially in San Diego County.
The regulators aren't regulating, folks. They aren't doing their job. They are allowing monopolies to continue (and to become new monopolies...think Cingular and AT&T). If you don' think this is true, think Sempra Energy and how they get away with what they get away with on the State level because the PUC doesn't properly do its job.
Yes, cars are needed that are fuel efficient. Yes, people need to conserve fuel. Yes, people need to buy from oil companies that have the lowest prices at the pump.
But none of this will totally work unless people do their homework and elect legislators legislators who will legislate, as opposed to finger pointing; and elect presidents who aren't in the pockets of the oil industries.
But the first step in forcing the oil industry to bring back competition (which is just as beneficial to the stockholders as it is to the consumer) is buy gas at the independent gas stations because the owners of these stations are not beholden to the major oil companies. Don't think 7 sisters oil companies here; think competition!
Jane Bond

Jane Bond

What we are doing to fight the oil companies

I'm just now starting a research paper, hopefully i'll encourage quite a few class mates to join in and write to the government on the issue. Alternative fuels and other items of business could possibly put an ounce of guilt in some of our politicians who refuse to take proper action in yielding the monopoly of the fossil fuel industry. I'm just pissed that i can't hardly go anywhere or do anything on my minumum wage income. 20 bucks for a half tank in a sixteen gallon tank car? I think that's a little outrageous seeing as i make 180 every two weeks and it costs me a gallon to get to school in back.

Simplicity being a relative concept, of course...

"Specious" - such an erudite way to discredit a writer or opinion!

Thank you for clarifying the situation re. California's gasoline blending. One hopes to learn something new every day, and so I have today. Yet the state's energy commission website posits that as other states switch to a similar blend as California, the competition for that still-relatively-unique blend keeps upward pressure on our prices, compared to much of the rest of the nation. So again, maybe not so simple....

And as we explore specious arguments, here's one that doesn't even benefit from the "beautifully plausible" part of that word's definition:
"Distance from refineries drives up price" <---- Absolutely WRONG"
I imagine you'd like a do-over on that claim, inasmuch as absolutes are almost always incorrect. Again, deferring to the state's energy commission website, the closest refineries producing acceptable gasoline blends (at least as of last year) were in Washington, a "7-10 day" distance (by tanker ship, one supposes). Would you really ask us to believe that gasoline coming from there would not be more expensive than gas refined in the state, ceteris paribus??? Anecdotal evidence from Ramona and Las Vegas does not trump essential economic relationships, as obviously something other than "distance from refineries" accounts for lower prices in those areas. Thus, it would be correct to say that that factor does not NECCESSARILY drive up price - yet if other factors were held constant, it almost certainly would.

The explanation that UCAN sees a lack of competition as a fundamental issue is largely acceptable. Yet Americans DO love their conspiracy theories, and DO love to hate big business. To paraphrase the (very liberal) economist John Kenneth Galbraith: The conventional wisdom protects us from the painful job of having to think. And so it is that Americans would much rather and much more readily accept that the oil companies are behind all our misery at the pump, when in fact they only deserve a small part of the blame. Perhaps UCAN could help promote a more balanced view of the gasoline market dynamics, as one small step towards helping Americans think more critically and less conspiratorially.

10 yrs of evidence available

Charles Langley's picture

... or at least the last five years, but you need to call me to get it. 881-UCAN

Charles Langley
Gasoline Analyst & Publisher, UCAN Watchdog

10 years of evidence

I've not been anonymous in order to stay hidden, but rather didn't realize or see the need to be known, as my name recognition is near zilch anywayBODCA. The fact is that I'm using information from your website to write a monograph on the oil and gasoline markets, and would be very interested in seeing the evidence you referenced, regarding distance from refineries, etc. By the way, "ceteris paribus" is a standard and commonly used concept/phrase in the field of economics (in which I work, and the primary basis for my paper) - not an attempt to be a literary fancy-pants. Anyway, if you can direct me to the evidence you mentioned, I'd be most grateful. Thanks!

ex ungue leonem

Charles Langley's picture

Wow! The level of literacy of our anonymous guest's commentary on is astonishing. However, we stand by our assertion that more often than not, the greater the distance a gas station is from the source of fuel, the lower the price. Having studied gasoline prices in San Diego for almost a decade, we can state this confidently and back it up with evidence.

Charles Langley
Gasoline Analyst & Publisher, UCAN Watchdog

It's seldom so simple

A lot of factors determine gasoline prices, in California as well as anywhere else. Probably, the lack of (sufficient) competition is a factor, as is the distance from major refinery sources, the unique blend of our gasoline, etc. It's too bad that so many consumers are happy to ignorantly accept that it's ALL an oil company plot; Americans are avowed conspiracy theory freaks, and we love to hate big business. But it's just not quite that simple, is it?

Yes, but it is simpler than you might think

Charles Langley's picture

The comment above makes several reasonable assumptions that are not necessarily true, and in some instances are specious.

They are:
1) Lack of sufficient competition is one factor.
2) Distance from refineries drives up price
3) Unique gas blends drive up price
4) Many Americans are avowed conspiracy freaks that love to hate big business.

It is true that a lot of factors contribute to gasoline pricing dynamics, but the idea that it is too complicated to understand is silly. So let's break it down statement by statement:

"1) Lack of sufficient competition is one factor." <--- No argument here.

(Although we would add that it is the MAJOR factor).

"2) Distance from refineries drives up price" <---- Absolutely WRONG.

In fact, the farther a gas station is from a refinery, the more likely it is that the price will be CHEAPER. The mountain community of Ramona, for example, frequently has gasoline priced at 10¢ a gallon cheaper than the regional average. Las Vegas gets all of its gas through a 400 mile pipeline from Los Angeles, but its gas prices are often 25¢ a gallon less. Even more troubling, Las Vegas charges the same tax rates as the City of San Diego.

3) Unique gas blends drive up price <----- Was true in 2003/2004, but not anymore

Every change in fuel blends has resulted in price spikes. The latest change, the addition of 6% ethanol to California's gasoline, helped spike prices to new levels in '04. Used as s pollution-fighter, ethanol was mandated on a national basis by President Bush in an effort to standardize the nation's fuel blends. The production cost for a gallon of ethanol is $1.54 a gallon. At the time of this writing, gasoline costs a dollar more per gallon than ethanol, so in reality, the addition of ethanol should help drive prices down.

What's more, our gasoline blends aren't that unique, and in times of shortages, refineries can actually get an import waiver that allows them to bring in "dirty" gasoline from other sources at a slight surcharge. The refineries will not do that though, because the last thing they want is more fuel on the market. More fuel = surplus, and surplus = falling prices.

4) Many Americans are avowed conspiracy freaks that love to hate big business.

UCAN has never suggested that there is a "conspiracy" in the oil industry. Nor have we suggested that laws designed to protect consumers and markets have been broken. What we do believe, after studying the market in San Diego for nearly ten years, is that whether or not there is unlawful communications between competitors, that the current crop of competitors does a very good job of avoiding any semblance of aggressive competition. The result is that the competition between oil companies is more like the gentlemanly elbowing of men at a buffet table, when it should resemble a knock-down, drag-out street fight.

Charles Langley
Gasoline Analyst & Publisher, UCAN Watchdog
(find cheaper gasoline at our Web site at www.fueltracker.com)

Post new comment

The content of this field is kept private and will not be shown publicly.
Copy the characters (respecting upper/lower case) from the image.




Like what you see? Go ahead and show your support! UCAN is a truly independent non-profit watchdog organization, dependent on grassroots donations like yours!



Utility Consumers' Action Network

File a complaint about a company online.

Terms & Conditions


UCAN.org is made available by the Utility Consumers' Action Network to assist you in becoming what you always knew you could be, a consumer ROCK STAR! We take no corporate money, and are beholden only to you, the consumer. As such, the site is here for educational, advocacy, and empowerment purposes, as well to to give you general information and a general understanding of the law. Just remember this site is NOT here to provide specific legal advice. By using this web site you of course understand that there is no attorney client relationship between you and the Web Site publisher, UCAN. The Web Site should not be used as a substitute for competent legal advice from a licensed professional attorney in your state.


That said, get to digging on the site, inform yourself, speak your mind, and earn Watchdog Bones! This is YOUR site, and we mean it. So comment on any of the content, discuss the latest issues in the forums, file a complaint on a company with the fraud squad, and generally cut loose.


See our Privacy Policy


Utility Consumers' Action Network

(619) 696-6966 or file a complaint about a company online.

Terms & Conditions

UCAN.org is made available by the Utility Consumers' Action Network to assist you in becoming what you always knew you could be, a consumer ROCK STAR! We take no corporate money, and are beholden only to you, the consumer. As such, the site is here for educational, advocacy, and empowerment purposes, as well to to give you general information and a general understanding of the law. Just remember this site is NOT here to provide specific legal advice. By using this web site you of course understand that there is no attorney client relationship between you and the Web Site publisher, UCAN. The Web Site should not be used as a substitute for competent legal advice from a licensed professional attorney in your state.

That said, get to digging on the site, inform yourself, speak your mind, and earn Watchdog Bones! This is YOUR site, and we mean it. So comment on any of the content, discuss the latest issues in the forums, file a complaint on a company with the fraud squad, and generally cut loose.

See our Privacy Policy and Copyright Policy, Some Rights Reserved