Summer forecast: Less stress on power supply

North County Times May 24, 2007
by Dave Downey

SAN DIEGO ---- State and local utility officials said Thursday they don't foresee a repeat of last summer, when torrid weather triggered record electricity consumption and power outages in San Diego County and throughout California.

"We should have sufficient supply for this summer," said Jim Detmers, vice president of operations for the California Independent System Operator, in delivering his agency's power forecast for the next four months. "But there are threats that we are getting prepared for."

And customers should expect to be asked to conserve power at some points during the summer, officials said, at a news conference at a San Diego utility's distribution center in Mission Valley.

On the plus side, the independent agency that oversees the state's power grid predicts that Southern California will have a larger cushion between anticipated consumption and total supply than it has in recent years, Detmers said. That cushion, or reserve, is forecast to be at or near 20 percent, he said.

But Detmers said Southern California is constrained by a relative lack of transmission lines compared with other regions, and there are not enough superhighways of electricity to reliably deliver all of that surplus if called upon.

Michael Shames, executive director for Utility Consumers' Action Network, a San Diego watchdog group, said it is imprudent to have a surplus that can't be used in full, and the region doesn't need a 20 percent reserve. Historically, the reserve has been closer to 10 percent, and 15 percent is more than adequate, he said.

"It's useful to have insurance, and that's what these reserves are," Shames said by telephone later Thursday. "But it is the most expensive power you can buy, bar none. ... So we're paying through the nose to keep the lights on."

Utility officials said the widespread drought could determine whether lights stay on this summer.

With the Sierra Nevada receiving just 29 percent of normal snowfall last winter, California won't be able to lean on its hydroelectric plants this time around, said Jim McIntosh, the agency's director of grid operations.

Perhaps the biggest concern is the parched landscape that is expected to erupt in wildfire, forcing the grid operator to cut power to wires to protect firefighters working under them, McIntosh said. If the agency is forced to cut power on brutally hot days when air conditioners are working overtime, he said, that could trigger outages and widespread calls for people to conserve energy.

Because of that, officials are crossing their fingers and hoping California won't be hit with a record-breaking summer like the last one.

In 2006, electricity consumption records were smashed all over the state. San Diego Gas & Electric Co. reached a new peak of 4,502 megawatts on July 2 for a service area that takes in San Diego County and the southern third of Orange County.

Two days later, Southern California Edison, which serves customers in Riverside County and the Los Angeles area, set a utility record of 23,366 megawatts. On that same day, the independent grid operator reported a statewide record of 50,270 megawatts, blowing away last summer's forecasted peak of 46,000 megawatts.

The grid operator's summer forecast calls for statewide peak use of 46,000 megawatts in June, more than 48,000 megawatts in July and August and just under 48,000 megawatts in September.

Meanwhile, the California Energy Commission forecasted Thursday that San Diego County will essentially match last year's peak in reaching a new high of 4,504 megawatts sometime over the summer.

Most of the time, a megawatt ---- the standard unit for measuring electricity ---- is enough to keep the lights on in 1,000 homes. But much more energy is required on hot days.

Jim Avery, senior vice president of electricity for San Diego Gas & Electric, said the San Diego region's peak typically comes a little later than the peak for the state as a whole, or in September. That, he said, is because three-fourths of the utility's customers live within five miles of the ocean and enjoy mild summers until the autumn Santa Ana winds kick up and make everyone hot.

Last summer's exception to the trend was the result of persistent hot and humid weather in July that delivered new record temperatures of 114 degrees for the San Diego Zoo's Wild Animal Park and 112 for Escondido, and pushed the mercury to 106 in the near-coastal community of Vista.

Detmers said that July heat wave, which gripped the entire state for an entire month, was something that comes along once every 50 years and chances are it won't happen again this year.

The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center, in a long-term weather forecast, says chances are that San Diego County will have near-normal temperatures.

"If we have a long drawn-out summer with peaking temperatures over an extended period, that could cause us some trouble," Detmers said.

But, said Avery, "If we just have a hot peak, we can handle that."